Monday, 8 February 2010

Snow and demand

The snow in America seems to be pushing consumers out to the right-hand end of the demand curve. So how should retailers respond?

First Marginal Revolution (Alex for once) points to this Bryan Caplan article:
A blizzard is about to hit DC...people unsurprisingly rushed to grocery stores to stock up....For any given type of product, the most popular brand always sold out first. There were no Eggo waffles, but plenty of Wegmans brand waffles. All the national brands of hot dogs and sausages were gone, but there were plenty of obscure sausages still on the shelves.
Can you guess my explanation? Click through to the MR link to see my answer in the comments, or look at the comment from Eric on Bryan's page for a similar idea.

Then Pricing for Profit asks the question: how should hardware stores optimise their profits when everyone wants a snow shovel? By now of course the answer is clear - at least if they have any foresight.

Simply get a bunch of cheap shovels with an unusual brand into the storeroom; put them on the shelves for $95 in the expectation that nobody will ever buy one. Until, that is, the snowstorm comes and all your regular shovels sell out.

And back to that MR item: a completely different, quirky but plausible theory from another commenter:
"This is exactly the reason LTCM failed: under time pressure, people flock to the name brand vs the equivalent non-name brand product (e.g. on the run vs off the run treasuries.) The spread widens in the short-term. In the bond markets, people fight for a fraction of a basis point most days, yet happily pay a bit more in an emergency for the reduced cognitive effort to ensure safety.
Posted by: gorobei at Feb 7, 2010 1:49:08 PM"

Sunday, 7 February 2010

The economics zeitgeist, 7 February 2010



This week's word cloud from the economics blogs. I generate a new cloud every Sunday, so please subscribe using the RSS or email box on the right and you'll get a message every week with the new cloud.


I summarise around four hundred blogs through their RSS feeds. Thanks in particular to the Palgrave Econolog who have an excellent database of economics blogs; I have also added a number of blogs that are not on their list. Contact me if you'd like to make sure yours is included too.

I use Wordle to generate the image, the ROME RSS reader to download the RSS feeds, and Java software from Inon to process the data.

You can also see the Java version in the Wordle gallery.

If anyone would like a copy of the underlying data used to generate these clouds, or if you would like to see a version with consistent colour and typeface to make week-to-week comparison easier, please get in touch.

The neuroscience of dogs (bizarre)

Via David Morgan, this hilarious picture from the Express:

A beautiful diagram in the express. on Twitpic

Click through to see a higher resolution version.

Two minutes of beauty - hilarious



Courtesy of Charlie Brooker and Farnam Street.

Friday, 5 February 2010

Pareto improvement FAIL

The launch document for Big Potatoes, a "manifesto for innovation", starts with some worthy goals:
We believe innovation is an indispensable premise for improving the quality of life. It is...a means to a better life...For innovators, today's challenges can inspire new gymnastics in the mind and new ingenuity in the lab.
Great - innovation is an amazing and important thing, and I'd never argue against it.

But this pro-one-thing document strays into the anti-something-else area soon enough.
We distinguish innovation from fiscal, regulatory, legal and cap-and-trade responses to today's challenges. Unlike these technocratic measures, innovation has the potential, at least, to increase wealth and opportunity for everyone: it is not a zero-sum game.
The tragedy here is the failure to understand the promise and potential of economics. The whole point of the field is that economic transactions are not a zero-sum game.

Whether an action is fiscal, regulatory, legal or (cap-and/or-) trade, there's no reason at all to think it will be zero-sum. It can easily, and usually does, create a net benefit.

This common error arises, mainly, from a failure to understand the difference between goods and utility.

If I have a pound of butter and you have a loaf of bread, we can each trade half for half. Someone who only understands commodities and not humans might think this was a zero-sum action - after all, we still have the same total of one loaf and one pound of butter.

But anyone who thinks about how people use and benefit from bread and butter will realise that we are both better off. This is called a Pareto improvement - a change where everyone benefits and nobody is left worse off.

[someone might argue that you may have preferred to keep all the bread and miss out on the butter. This is why, wherever we can, we prefer to rely on voluntary trades to make our lives better]

Fiscal, regulatory, and legal actions are all similarly designed to increase total human utility. Naturally this intention occasionally fails, but you combat that by making regulation better, not by stopping it altogether.

There is a more subtle point here - a point about innovation, as it happens. If a Pareto improvement is available, and the parties involved are aware of it, it should have already taken place. So in order to find a new Pareto-improving fiscal transaction, or trade, or rule, we need to...innovate! Somebody has to come up with a new idea, find a new match between people and things they would like to buy, or design a new intervention that will make people better off.

All of these things are genuine innovations, and make up what Jared Diamond calls social technology. At some point, everything - from mortgages to co-operative societies, from limited companies to contracts, from the justice system to governments themselves - had to be invented. But it seems that the designers of Big Potatoes don't really think that counts. In fact, it turns out that they don't actually mean to support innovation at all. What they want is physical technology.

There's nothing at all wrong with physical technology. But by pursuing it exclusively, you're closing yourself off from a major - arguably the major - source of human fulfilment and happiness.

China 2006 = USA 2010?

Scott Sumner writes:
"I understand that China has begun growing briskly again and that at some point they will need to start appreciating the yuan again to prevent overheating....But it is too soon to tighten now. If China slows, our recovery will also be threatened"
In other words, even though the Chinese economy is growing fast, they aren't suffering inflation because there's plenty of spare capacity in the rest of the world to help keep prices down.

Does that remind you of this article (and ten thousand others) from 2006?
...the increasing integration of national economies contributed heavily to the global decline in inflation. As then-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan noted in this May 2004 speech, globalization affords Americans access to goods and services that are produced more cheaply abroad in places where large labor forces work for less money (e.g. China)
Funny how things turn around, eh?

Thursday, 4 February 2010

MPs in 'honest and good value' shock

The headlines today are full of outrage at the £1.1 million that MPs have been asked to repay to Parliament after overclaiming on their expenses.

While this might sound like a lot of money, it relates to 750 MPs over a five year period.

That's a wallet-stuffing total of £293 per MP per year. The average (legitimate) expenses bill is over £118,000 - money which is spent (mostly on the salaries of not-very-well-paid staff) to ensure that Members of Parliament can properly represent you, their constituents. In other words, the average MP has overclaimed on their expenses by less than 0.25% (if you omit the MPs who don't need to repay anything, the average for the 389 remaning members is under 0.5%).

Given the strictness with which these retrospective rules are being applied, a quarter of a percent is an impressively low figure. I suspect that the record of MPs on expenses claims must be one of the cleanest of any profession in Britain, and probably about as good as any professional group anywhere in the world.

So can we expect them to be given a break now? What do you think?