Why endings matter [spoiler-free Game of Thrones references]

It probably has not escaped your notice that the Game of Thrones TV series finished this week. If you use social media at all, I suspect you also saw some anguished squawks about how awful the ending was. How the incompetent writers screwed it all up. Maybe you even signed the petition, along with 1.5 million others, to have the last series remade with a different conclusion.

Personally I thought it wasn't a bad outcome, but I seem to be in the minority. Either way, why does this have such significance?

I read a counterargument a few days ago: You've had 70 hours of enjoyment already – it's in the bank. You enjoyed episode 1, 2, 3, …and you can't go back and "unenjoy" them now. One bad hour at the end can't rewind the clock and eliminate the last 8 years of pleasure?

Yet this feels wrong. The ending can ruin the beginning. Why should this be?

A model from cognitive economics may have the answer. The theory of "cognitive goods" says that watchin…

What makes a useful theory?

If conventional economic theory is so wrong (as we are repeatedly told) why does it survive so well?

This post by UnlearningEcon prompted me to think again about why economics, despite widely accepted empirical data from behavioural econ, is broadly taught in the same way as before, and why its basic assumptions still underpin much modern research.

Some have a sociological explanation for this. In this view, economists are invested in the old approaches, have spent decades honing specific mathematical skills, and effectively collude to make sure new ideas do not displace the old. The top journals only accept papers that cite the same old work, perpetuating the models. Science, as they say, advances one funeral at a time. No doubt there's something to this, but I don't think economists are quite so closed minded.

There is a clue in the above article:
"...Euclidean geometry, despite being incorrect, is more effective than non-Euclidean geometry in some engineering and archit…

Reporting back: the Cognitive Economics session at the AEA conference

[Tara posting today]

We had a great response to our Cognitive Economics session at the American Economic Association’s conference a few weeks ago.

For those who weren’t there, here’s a quick summary of the four papers presented, and the discussion at the end.

Dan Benjamin, Kristen Cooper, Ori Heffetz, and Miles Kimball presented What Do People Want?

The key question of this paper is: how can we measure happiness? And how do we account for the biases and differences across different groups and demographics?

The authors have built a model that examines the multiple dimensions of wellbeing by asking individuals a huge number of different questions. Any single question about your true wellbeing will be affected by a lot of “noise” - i.e. biases. They reduced this noise by asking individuals multiple questions including tradeoffs and interpersonal comparisons.

By statistical analysis, they found a small number of underlying factors that best predict the different dimensions of wellbeing.

The a…

Three systems: a mechanism for mental and social narrative

Alex Rosenberg says here that we are instinctively driven by stories, narrative and theory of mind - a very useful instinct on the small scale - although that instinct can be misleading on the larger scale of history and politics. His book on this claim is also out, though I haven't read it yet.

It seems uncontroversial that the idea of narrative has a powerful hold on how we think. There are thousands of discussions of storytelling as a way for us to bond with other people, and the biases that come from our desire to see a natural story behind events. I don't think many would disagree that stories are compelling to most people, and that we naturally like to see the world through narrative.

I've been exploring how the mind might implement this, and what the consequences might be.

Readers may recall the System 3 theory from earlier posts. This is how I think narratives fit into that, and how the process works in the mind:

People (and other animals) are very good at learning…

What people want, cognitive goods, models of persuasion and why we avoid important information: the cognitive economics session at the AEA conference

For the first time, there will be a session on Cognitive Economics at the American Economic Association’s conference. The conference, in association with the ASSA, is taking place from Friday 4 January to Sunday 6 January and will be a hugely interesting programme over the long weekend.

The Cognitive Economics session will take place on Sunday 6 January 2019 at 8-10am in Atlanta Marriott Marquis, International 10. I hope that any readers who are attending the conference are able to come along!

Let’s give you a quick overview of the session:
Dan Benjamin, University of Southern California; Kristen Cooper, Gordon College; Ori Heffetz, Cornell University and Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Miles Kimball, University of Colorado Boulder will be presenting a paper on What Do People Want? On the use of large-scale surveys to estimate multidimensional indifference maps over "fundamental" goods that include mental states such as emotions, perceptions and beliefs: answering the quest…

“Mysterious psycho-logic”, the “Nudge Unit” and irrational humans: tune in to Leigh Caldwell and Rory Sutherland on BBC Radio 4's show Thought Cages

“Mysterious psycho-logic”, the “Nudge Unit” and irrational humans - Leigh explores cognitive and behavioural economics and science with Rory Sutherland on BBC Radio 4’s show Thought Cages today and on Friday.

Tune in at 13:45 today to hear Leigh discussing behavioural and cognitive economics on Thought Cage’s next episode: Instinct Before Logic: The Postbox at the O2. During this episode, Rory and Leigh will be exploring why reason is no longer used to persuade us to change our behaviour, showing what the “Nudge Unit” of the UK government is and explaining all about behavioural science. 
Tune in to BBC Radio 4 live at 13:45, or listen to the episode on BBC iPlayer afterwards here.
If you can’t catch today’s episode, make sure you listen out for Leigh and Rory again this Friday at 13:45. Looking in more depth at the traditional shopping experience, this episode - The Sachet in the Pot Noodle - will reveal how behavioural and cognitive science is changing the future of retail.
You can liste…

A new team member and new plans

Hello, today it’s not Leigh posting, but me, Tara, his new colleague! I’ve recently started working for Inon and with Leigh on his cognitive economics work. I’ll be writing content on cognitive economics, spreading the word about cognitive economics to both academic and general audiences and also organising events around cognitive economics. I wanted to take this opportunity to introduce myself and also fill you in on some exciting events on cognitive economics coming up.
All cards on the table - my background is not in economics or psychology. I actually studied English Literature in my undergraduate and postgraduate degrees. However, I’ve always been passionate about spreading new ideas, working in an interdisciplinary fashion and writing. In my professional work for the past few years, I’ve been programming events for two cultural institutions. I started working with Leigh in early September and it’s been a real pleasure learning and writing about this new discipline. 
The first thre…