Saturday, 29 November 2008
Just in case you think I've gone mad, this is Myron Scholes' prediction, not mine. He made it at a speech to Chicago Graduate School of Business in June, which I forgot to write up at the time.
He was referring to the credit crisis rather than the economic downturn, but even then it was pretty clear that recession was on the way. So let's keep an eye on the calendar and if he's right, he's due our congratulations.
Unfortunately he slightly spoiled the effect later in the presentation by referring to the prediction as March 9th 2009. So we need to allow error bars of a few days in measuring the end.
Oh for the days when such a prediction from an esteemed (though a little less than before LTCM went under) Nobel prize winner would be self-fulfilling. Now, maybe if Warren Buffett said the same thing, it would be...