Trust, news and the efficient markets hypothesis

I presented this paper today at the conference of the Cass Behavioural Finance Working Group.

In summary, it replaces the concept of "news" or "information" in the Efficient Markets Hypothesis with a model of beliefs, reflecting the idea that nobody in a market has objective, indisputable knowledge about anything, only beliefs of different levels of confidence.

Slides here; will tell you more later.

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