Friday, 7 May 2010

Behavioural politics: the story so far

The election results are almost in, and Nick Clegg has just made a brilliant tactical intervention. Peter Mandelson must be jealous.

But more of that later. First, a look back at the days of the campaign. Click each of the links below to see what happened on that day.

You'll remember that I rated the three parties each day on their behavioural nous. But who came off best throughout the campaign? The ratings are listed against each day below, and at the end you can find out the totals (ratings are given in order Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat).

Day 1: 7, 7, 5
Day 2: 8, 5, 4
Day 3: 6, 7, 4
Day 4: 6, 6, 6
Day 5: 8, 7, 5
Day 6: 6, 8, 7
Day 7: 6, 7, 6
Day 8: 6, 6, 5
Day 9: 5, 6, 8
Day 10: 3, 5, 9
Day 11: 5, 6, 8
Day 12: 5, 6, 8
Day 13: 6, 6, 5
Day 14: 5, 6, 7
Day 15: 6, 5, 6
Day 16: 7, 4, 6
Day 17: 6, 4, 7
Day 18: 7, 5, 6
Day 19: 7, 5, 8
Day 20: 7, 6, 5
Day 21: 8, 5, 6
Day 22: 4, 5, 6
Day 23: 6, 3, 7
Day 24: 6, 7, 6
Day 25: 8, 6, 4
Day 26: 8, 5, 7
Day 27: 8, 6, 6
Day 28: 6, 9, 7
Day 29: 7, 6, 8
Day 30: 7, 7, 7

The average ratings throughout the campaign are, therefore...

  • In third place, Labour with 5.87
  • In second place, the Liberal Democrats with 6.30
  • And just making it into first place, the Conservatives with 6.33
This is nothing to do with policies or the genuine merits of each party: it is simply an evaluation of how well the parties have run the psychology of their campaigns.

And how has this manifested itself in the electoral outcome? Not in number of votes or even seats, but in terms of the power that's become apparent today. I think the three parties show up in exactly the order that the ratings indicate.

If you're new to this series, please start with Day 1 above and carry on through.

1 comment:

Min said...

Are the Lib Dems considered to be in between Labour and Conservatives, or like Labour, but different? ;)

If they are in between, the hung parliament should put them in the catbird seat, no?