A story about evidence

There were two traders who used to cross the desert in Kenya, carrying incense from one city to another and metalwork back the other way. The trip was a long and hot one, and they travelled with two camels each and always with just a bit more food and water than they strictly needed.

For many years their trade carried on successfully - occasionally with a sandstorm, once losing some goods and camels to a thief, but never with a real crisis. Their wealth gradually accumulated, and they were able to expand their caravan to six and eventually ten camels; but no matter how rich they became, they never forgot to carry an extra waterskin and packet of cured beef: they were wise enough to know that riches cannot stop you dying of thirst.

But still it came to pass that on one difficult trip, the wind was strong and they had to camp for an extra day; when they reached the next oasis it was dry; and the spare water was soon gone. With three days to walk to the next water, and the sun stronger than ever, their mood was grim.

"What shall we do?" said the younger trader to the older. "I fear that we will never see the city again."

"My grandfather told me once of a time when he nearly perished," replied the older man. "Eighty years ago, in the greatest sandstorms of his time, he was caught in the desert with six camels and a cargo of wine. There was a tribe who camped nearby but they were hostile and he had only escaped recently from their swords. After a day of dehydration he was near to succumbing. In desperation he slaughtered a camel and drank its blood; drank a pint of wine; and finally he worked himself into a frenzy, drew his sword and raided the supplies of the tribe for milk and meat."

"And...what happened?"

"He lived to tell the tale, so it must have worked. Perhaps we can follow his example."

"But there is no tribe nearby, and we have no wine," said the young trader.

The older man nodded. "We still have the camels."

"Your grandfather's story is inspiring. But even if true, there's no evidence that drinking blood on its own will save us. I have worked hard for my camels and I will not kill them for nothing."

The old man sighed and drew his knife. "If you have no evidence, sometimes you only need common sense. We are going to die in this desert if we do nothing. I am slaughtering one of mine."

So he killed the camel, drained its blood, filled his waterskins and drank from one. And then they set off once again towards the distant oasis with the nine remaining camels.

One day later, in the height of the afternoon heat, the young trader gave in and begged for a share of the blood; his colleague offered it and they both survived to reach the oasis two days beyond.

Once back in the city they were soon able to replace the slaughtered camel and continue to build their wealth. The older man never mentioned the fact that he'd sacrificed his camel to save both their lives; but the young trader never forgot it.

In recent months I have frequently seen the complaint that there is "no evidence" that fiscal stimulus works, and therefore we should not try it. Sometimes, as the old trader said, evidence is not needed if you have enough common sense.

The moral of this story is: If you have insufficient liquidity, you should try anything that might work. Sacrificing some wealth in order to make it to the next oasis is better than dying rich.

Incidentally, the two traders retired and wrote their joint memoirs a few years later: The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Camel Blood, by Kenyans.